Seismology TowArd Research innovation with data of Earthquake Project (STAR-E Project)「New developments in space-time earthquake forecasting and monitoring: from long-term to real-time」

The 13th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei13) will be held March 17-20, 2024 at Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech) Convention Center, Shenzhen, China. 

At the 91st Statistical Seismology Seminar, Prof. Guan, Yongtao （Department of Management Science, School of Business Administration, University of Miami) will give a talk (Online 16:00-17:00). For more information, click here.

Masumi Yamada (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University) will give a lecture at the Seismology Summer School 2023 organised by the Seismological Society of Japan. Click here for more information (SSJ site in Japanese).

Matsu'ura, S Ritsuko (Senior Fellow, Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction) appeared on "NHK History Detective - What to do about Ieyasu vs. Hideyoshi" program, showing the seismic intensity distribution of the Tensho Earthquake and explaining why Hideyoshi had no choice but to compromise with Tokugawa.

At the 90th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Dr. Hsieh, Ming-Che (謝 銘哲)（Associate Research Fellow @Earthquake Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management Center (E-DREaM), National Central University, Taiwan）gave a talk (Online 16:00- ). For more information, click here.

At the American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2023 meeting, the seismology session S029 proposed by Zhuang Jiancang (Professor, ISM) was accepted and 49 presentations were submitted.

Press Release: "New Method to Monitor Magma Activity Based on Data Processing of Earthquakes Occurring Directly Under Mt. Fuji" (in Japanese).  For English translation, click here.

The results of ISM-STAR-E in FY2022 were introduced at the main agenda item "Advancement of Long-Term Prediction Methods for Inland Earthquakes" of the 88th Session of the Research and Observation Planning Subcommittee of the Policy Committee held on June 28, 2023, at the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of the Japanese government. These results will be used as a reference for the release of forecast information in the future.

Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM) gave a lecture at the Center for Mathematical and Data Science Education and Research (MMDS) at Osaka University. For more info, click here.

At the 89th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Prof. Zhigang Peng (School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA）gave a talk (Online 16:00- ). For more information, click here.

Zhuang Jiancang (Professor, ISM) has organised an invited session "Statistical Seismology" at IWAP2023 (International Workshop on Applied Probability 2023) in Thessaloniki, Greece.

Zhuang Jiancang (Professor, ISM) visited the University of Otago, New Zealand (from 22 Apr to 11 May) for a joint research meeting on 'slow-slip'.

Stephen Wu (Associate Professor, ISM) received the Young Scientists' Prize of the Commendation for Science and Technology by the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. For the ISM press release, click here (PDF in Japanese).

Yosihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) is ranked #14 in Japan among Best Scientists for 2023.

Dr. Koji Tamaribuchi (Meteorological Research Institute) received the Seismological Society of Japan Young Scientist Incentive Award by his research result on "Improvement of Immediate Prediction of Seismic Motions and Elucidation of Unusual Seismic Activity Based on Advanced Earthquake Identification Methods".

At the 88th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Dr. Sebastian Hainzl (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany) and Sam Stockman (Computational Statistics and Data Science, University of Bristol, UK) gave talks (15:00 -17:00). For more information, click here.

Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM) had an invited talk at Slow-to-Fast Earthquake Workshop in Taiwan (March13-14, 2023).

Yosihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) presented "Experiments in Prediction of Crustal Activity (1) - Short-term Probability of Inland Earthquakes Prediction and Evaluation of Short-Term Probability of Inland Earthquakes" on the short-term prediction of spatiotemporal seismic activity over the last three years using various spatiotemporal ETAS models based on online source data, and the evaluation of the results of these runs at the 238th Liaison Conference on Earthquake Prediction (held on February 28, 2023). In addition, he reported on the aftershock activity of the February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkey under the Urgent Topic Issue.

Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM) gave an invited lecture for the Priority Topic of the conference "Deepening Earthquake Research with Artificial Intelligence" entitled "Development of a Method for Detecting Seismic and Geodetic Events Using Multiple Observation Stations with Artificial Intelligence" at the 238th Liaison Conference on Earthquake Prediction (held on February 28, 2023).

Masumi Yamada (Associate Professor, DPRI Kyoto University) received the 2022 INNO-vation Program Generation Award and the Kyoto University Tachibana Award. (Re-edited from 2/14 Topics)

At the 87th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Daisuke Sato, JSPS Research Fellow (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University) gave a talk. (Online 16:00 -17:00)

Our group's research outputs of "Analysis of the Noto Peninsula earthquake swarm using the nonstationary ETAS mode" and "Long-term prediction and validation of inland earthquakes using the hierarchical space-time (HIST-ETAS) ETAS model, etc." were presented as a monitoring report and a summary of key issues lecture, respectively, at the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction meeting (YouTube video available).

Zhuang Jiancang (Associate Professor, ISM) and Sofiane Rahmani (Center of Research in Astronomy, Astrophysics and Geophysics (CRAAG), Algeria) gave talks at the 86th Statistical Seismology Seminar. (Online 16:15 -17:30)

The 12th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei12) was held in Corsica (Institut des Etudes Scientifiques de Cargèse, Corsica, France, 17-21 October 2022). The project leader, Associate Professor Zhuang, Jiancang (Programme Committee member), Xiong, Ziyao (Project Assistant Professor) and Giuseppe, Petrillo (Project Researcher) attended and presented their work.

Masayuki Kano (Assistant Professor, Department of Geophysics, Tohoku University) received the 30th Tsuboi Prize of the Geodetic Society of Japan Award for Research on frictional properties and slip diversity of faults in subduction zones based on geodetic data.

Peng Hong (Project Researcher, ISM) has joined our team.

Tomoaki Nishikawa (Assistant Professor, DPRI Kyoto University; Visiting Researcher, ISM) gave a talk at the 85th Statistical Seismology Seminar (Online 16:15 -18:15).

Yosihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) gave a lecture at the Seismological Society of Japan's Special Symposium: A Major Earthquake! What next after "Be careful for about a week"? -Late Earthquakes and Temporary Information-(in Japanese), Online. Click for: the summary & PowerPoint [pdf].

Giuseppe Petrillo (Project Researcher, ISM) has invited for a lecture at「Coarse-grained description for non-equilibrium systems and transport phenomena」in Rome, Italy. For the summary of the lecture, click here.

Masumi Yamada (Assistant Professor, DPRI, Kyoto University) gave a talk on "Mystery of Tsunami Caused by January 2022 Tongan Volcano Eruption" at the 51st Seismological Society of Japan Press Conference.

Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM), the sub-thesis leader of our project, has been selected to receive the Ogawa Research Encouragement Award from the Japan Statistical Society.

Our group members hold a session "Statistical seismology and underlying physical processes" at the Japan Geoscience Union 2022 Congress (JpGU2022) (hybrid format).

Giuseppe Petrillo (Project Researcher, ISM) has joined our team.

The video of the 1st Research Forum of the Seismic Survey Research Project Using Information Science (STAR-E Project) "Earthquake x AI, Innovation Aimed at by the STAR-E Project: High-profile AI Companies Talk about the Potential of Earthquake Research" has been posted on the MEXT's YouTube channel.

The ISM STAR-E project research project was introduced in the Spring 2022 issue of Earthquake Headquarters News.

The analysis results of the 2022.3.16 Fukushima Prefecture Offshore Earthquake Early Warning, occurred in a short period of time can be viewed on the website of Masumi Yamada (Assistant Professor, Division of Earthquake Disaster Prevention Research, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University).

Long-term prediction map of a major earthquake directly under the earth by Yoshihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) was featured in The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei electronic edition) (The text is available only to subscribers, so please refer to the Bulletin of the Japan Federation of Earthquake Prediction Association.)

Statistical Mathematics Vol. 69, No. 2, Special Topic: Hawkes Process: Recent Development and Applications edited by Jiancang Zhuang (the project leader, Associate Professor, ISM) and others (including a conference article by Prof. Hawkes) has been published.

Our group's proposal has been selected for the national project STAR-E by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan.  The contents of the proposal and an interview are posted on the "ISM Project Introduction" page.

Members page has been updated.

Topics and Publications have been updated.

ISM Reports of The Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) has been updated.

Conference Presentations has been updated.

Publications page has been updated.

Conference Presentations have been updated.

Members page has been updated.

Members page has been updated.

About this site has been updated. FY2022 (R4) Annual Report on Results (ISM proposal) [pdf in Japanese] is now available.

Publications page has been updated.

Members and Works (Publications and Conference Presentations) have been updated.

Topics has been updated.

Topics and Links (Information) have been updated.

Topics, Publications and Presentations have been updated.

Statistical Seismology Seminars has been updated (Latest: 2023/3/17(Fri) 15:00-17:00).

Topics and Works (Publications and Outrearch of Outcomes) has been updated.

Publications has been updated.

Conference Presentations has been updated.

Works of Assistant Professor Tomoaki Nishikawa (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto Univ.) has been added to Publication and conference presentation pages.

Publications has been updated.

Publications has been updated.

Statistical Seismology Seminars has been updated (Latest: 2022/12/26(Mon) 16:00-17:00).

Professor Emeritus Ogata and Project Associate Professor Kumazawa gave an inviting lecture and a report on the results of our project, respectively, including "Long-Term Prediction of Large Inland Earthquakes," at the 237th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee of Earthquake Prediction (Priority Issue and Earth Crust Monitoring). The details are available in the "Topics" and "Information" sections of this page, in the "Contribution of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics to the CCEP Meeting" section.

On the Publications page, papers by Associate Professor Zhuang Jiancang and Project Researcher Petrillo Giuseppe, among others, are now available.

Conference Presentations has been updated (Seminar in December by Zhuang Jiancang).

Conference Presentations has been updated (Presentation of the symposium to be held in November by Associate Professor Keisuke Yano).

Conference Presentations has been updated (Information on participation of members in 3 conferences held in October is available).

"Review: Visualizing heterogeneities of earthquake hypocenter catalogs: modeling, analysis, and compensation" has been added to Useful information to understand our project (Books, special features, etc.).

Updated information for The 85th Statistical Seismology Seminars (Latest: 2022/10/03(Mon) 16:15-18:15).

Outrearch of Outcomes "Prediction and validation of short- to long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space-time ETAS and space-time Poisson process models" has been updated.

Conference Presentations has been updated.

Conference Presentations has been updated.

Publications has been updated.

Conference Presentations has been updated.

Publications has been updated.

Software Database page has been updated.

About Research page (Summary of Research Results Fiscal Year 2021 (R3)［pdf in Japanese]) has been updated.

Members page has been updated.

Works (Conference Presentations) has been updated.

Works (Publications) page has been updated.

Software Database page has been updated.

Works (publications and research outcomes pages) page has been updated.

Works (Conference Presentations) has been updated.

Information has been updated.

Update Information columns have been added to TOP page.